As venues multiply, the same event trades as a binary here, a contract there, an outcome market somewhere else — fragmented liquidity, different mechanics, prices that don’t agree.
One future. A dozen prices.
What the consensus is
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01
We don’t forecast. We resolve.
Crebian mirrors the deepest venues and measures the distance between them — a cross-venue reference probability. The consensus of the market itself, read across every venue at once. A reference, not a prediction.
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02
A price software can act against
A person trades on instinct and a headline. An agent can’t — it needs a canonical, machine-readable probability from a source it can trust, with no human in the loop. As software begins to hedge and allocate, that feed becomes a dependency.
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03
Not just the price — the state of the market
Because Crebian sees the whole cross-venue flow, we read the health of every market — how efficiently it’s priced, how toxic the flow, how close the book is to stress — signal no single participant can compute.
Every event widens the map.
The trading layer is becoming a commodity.
The truth layer is not.
The reference the markets — and the machines — act against.
Venues compress fees and fragment liquidity; the canonical price-and-probability layer above them does not. Crebian is building toward being that layer — the reference the markets, the institutions, and the agents price, hedge, and settle against.
Back to the field