Where the world prices what happens next.
Crebian is the measurement layer for prediction markets — the cross-venue consensus probability of any future state, machine-readable and in real time.
THE NOISE
Prediction markets price what the world thinks happens next. That signal is scattered across venues that don’t agree, in order books almost no one is reading.
THE READ
Crebian reads all of them at once — and resolves them into one machine-readable probability.
THE REFERENCE
The canonical reference a desk, a model, or an autonomous agent can act against.
What we build
Cross-venue capture
Full-depth order books and trade tape across the major prediction-market venues, joined into a single view.
Microstructure intelligence
We measure where venues disagree — liquidity, divergence, latency — and the health of every market: how efficiently it’s priced, how toxic the flow, how stressed the book. Signal no single venue can see.
Risk & execution engines
Position sizing, toxic-flow detection, and hedging — engineered on the data and stress-tested.
Measurement, not prediction.
Cross-venue ground truth.
Machine-readable, and built to be acted on.
The resolve
Every venue, resolved to one reference.
The same event trades on a dozen venues that don’t agree. We mirror the deep ones and measure the gap — one cross-venue reference, continuously.
Enter the consensusThe consensus
One future. A dozen prices.
As venues multiply, the same event trades as a binary here, a contract there, an outcome market somewhere else — fragmented liquidity, different mechanics, prices that don’t agree.
We don’t forecast. We resolve.
Crebian mirrors the deepest venues and measures the distance between them — a cross-venue reference probability. The consensus of the market itself, read across every venue at once. A reference, not a prediction.
A price software can act against
A person trades on instinct and a headline. An agent can’t — it needs a canonical, machine-readable probability from a source it can trust, with no human in the loop. As software begins to hedge and allocate, that feed becomes a dependency.
Not just the price — the state of the market
Because Crebian sees the whole cross-venue flow, we read the health of every market — how efficiently it’s priced, how toxic the flow, how close the book is to stress — signal no single participant can compute.
Every event widens the map.
The trading layer is becoming a commodity.
The truth layer is not.
The reference the markets — and the machines — act against.
Venues compress fees and fragment liquidity; the canonical price-and-probability layer above them does not. Crebian is building toward being that layer — the reference the markets, the institutions, and the agents price, hedge, and settle against.
research@crebian.com